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ecent freight rises have began putting pressure on the bauxite trade. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal said that “recent developments in the Guinea bauxite trade are introducing a more complex outlook for the Capesize segment, as the interaction between freight costs, commodity pricing and government policy begins to influence trade flows on one of the most important long-haul bulk routes. Guinea has become the dominant supplier in the global bauxite market, with exports reaching about 183 million tonnes in 2025, a yearly increase of roughly 25%. The majority of these volumes moved to China, which continues to rely heavily on imported feedstock to support aluminium production close to its effective capacity ceiling of around 45–46 million tonnes per year. At the same time, Chinese bauxite imports reached record levels above 200 million tonnes, highlighting the scale of the trade supporting Capesize employment”.   Source: Intermodal However, according to Intermodal’s Head of Research Department, Mr. Yannis Parganas, “the economics of this flow have recently come under pressure. Freight costs on the Guinea–China route have risen sharply, with voyage levels reportedly moving from the mid-$20s per tonne range in early March to above $30 per tonne within a short period, largely reflecting higher bunker prices following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Fuel costs have increased substantially, with very low sulphur fuel oil and marine gasoil prices rising significantly within weeks, directly increasing voyage expenses. At current price levels, the delivered economics of Guinean bauxite into China appear increasingly tight. With Chinese import prices holding around the mid-$60 per tonne range and FOB Guinea values near the low-$30s per tonne, the margin available to producers after freight is becoming limited, as rising freight costs effectively capping any upside in FOB returns. This raises questions about the sustainability of marginal export